NHL betting guide: daily picks, odds, winning odds and advice

Follow our live updates for the NHL Playoffs for the Bruins, Hurricanes, Lightning, Maple Leafs and Kings vs Oilers.

Welcome to the daily game odds page where you will find the odds of winning for each of the night games, as well as betting tips based on how those odds compare to the market chances. Game odds take into account each team’s strength (based on predicted rosters), home snow, and comfort. The expected strength of each team is based on the expected value of the players in its roster based on the Game Added Score Rating (GSVA). You can read more about the GSVA and the model here.

This page will be updated every morning between 10:00 AM and 12:00 PM

For those unfamiliar with betting, I wrote a guide a few years ago that still stands. It summarizes the basic tricks of the trade and I urge you to read on. Although model picks have been profitable in the past, there is no guarantee that they will always be profitable – please don’t bet any money you don’t feel comfortable losing.

For the optimal betting strategy, I recommend plugging each probability in the Kelly Criterion calculator into a Kelly multiplier of 0.35 (full Kelly is a bit too aggressive for a different sport like hockey). Recommended bet sizes will be included to make life easier for some of you, but these sizes will be based on Bet MGM streaks at time of publication. If you see a different line The Kelly Criterion calculator linked above is still the perfect solution.

Last update: June 6, 2022, 1:20 PM EST

betting tips

No Bets for Game 4. There is an edge in Edmonton, but there may be some 3-0 down chain effects that I don’t really want to touch (especially since I’m personally betting on a sweep). If you can get +115 or +120, that might be useful, but I’ll sit back. For Tampa Bay I hope the range is -165 to -170 and play it in regulation if it gets there.

last game

betting tips

Here we are already betting on Game 3.

  • Edmonton (+110, 2.10) – 1.9 percent: It’s possible that Pavel Francoz’s exit plus Andrei Burakovsky out puts us on the Oilers tonight. I think they might be able to make this series a little fun here with home ice – even if Game 2 is less encouraging. You can get a better number than this elsewhere, too.

first round

A huge night to wrap up the season that gets us up to +20 units a year. It was an absolute rollercoaster that got there, but we’ll take it. Maybe next year we’ll be heading into modernity soon.

There’s no advantage in today’s single game, but it’s a good time to talk about the playoffs starting tomorrow. Futures and Series pricing is the name of the game here and here’s what I recommend based on the model.

Futures bets

To win the Stanley Cup

I’ve divided Kelly’s usual share by three here.

  • Colorado +325-1%: I am very high in Colorado and have team job prospects at +233. There is value on the favourites, but we’ll see if a hockey match makes that difficult.
  • Florida +550 – 1 percent:
  • Toronto +1000 – 0.3 percent:
  • Minnesota +1800 – 0.3 percent:

To win the conference

I’ve divided Kelly’s usual share by three here. Not surprisingly, they are the same difference. You can dip twice here, or go with one of them (especially for teams like the Wild or the Leafs who will be underdogs in the final against Florida and Colorado respectively, if those teams make it).

  • Colorado +130 – 1.3%: I think this is close to 50/50, so getting the extra money is good value even if it’s not a huge return.
  • Florida +275 – 1.5 percent:
  • Toronto +450 – 0.5 percent:
  • Minnesota +750 – 0.8 percent:

first round

Again, reduce the stakes here to a third as there will be daily bets on the game. But there are still some decent edges. These are all prices for the series.

  • Minnesota (-165, 1.61) – 3.5 percent:
  • Florida 4-0 (+550, 6.50) – 0.8 percent:
  • Florida -2.5 (+140, 2.40) – 1.5 percent:
  • Toronto (-120, 1.83) – 1.9 percent:
  • Colorado 4-0 (+400, 5.00) – 1.3 percent:
  • Colorado -2.5 (+105, 2.05) – 5.0 percent:

second round

At risk of a third here.

  • Colorado -1.5 (-175, 1.57) – 2.0 percent:
  • Florida (-155, 1.65) – 1.5 percent:

third round

Going to the full risk here because our betting amount is dwindling.

  • Colorado -1.5 (-110, 1.91) – 3.4 percent: I made this -133 so it has a decent sized edge on the spread. Colorado should win this game and have an overwhelming advantage over Edmonton. Conor McDavid is very worrying, but the avalanche should be able to handle it. I have a 4-0 at +630, 4-1 at +329 and 4-2 at +388 so you might find some decent edges on those. Personally, I played 4-2 and 4-0.

Record keeping

2021-22 record

Regular season: 201-182, 20.1 units, 5.3 percent ROI

Clearance: 14-17, -4.0 units, -9.1% ROI

Futures: 3-11, -0.9 units

betstamp profile (the 2020-21 record does not reflect stake size which is why there is a discrepancy between what was published in the betting guide last year)

2020-21 Betting Guide with Record

Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through the links in the article above.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.