2 outright bets in Ontario

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We got fairly close to getting our first direct win last week with Max Homma, but some surprising double bogey knocked him out of the championship. It didn’t help that Billy Horschel ran off the field on Saturday and managed to pull off victory on Sunday at Muirfield Village.

We’re in a strange place in the schedule, with the Memorial Championships last week and the US Open next week. There are a lot of big names in the field at this week’s RBC Canadian Open, but the field is really down after the top 10 names. I don’t remember a week where only one golfer was priced in the 1920s and no golfer was priced in the 1940s. We basically have eight big favorites up front and then a bunch of long hits.

In terms of the track, we haven’t seen St. George’s Golf and Country Club on the PGA Tour since 2010. There’s no point looking into the history of the track because a lot has changed since then – equipment, golf style, even the course. With no course history to rely on, anyone can guess how easy or difficult the course will be this week.

Here’s what we know—the course is a bar-70 that features three pitches of five on par and is more than 7,000 yards in length. According to the edit, this will be one of the shortest courses on the PGA TOUR this season.

Reportedly there was heavy rain in the area this week, so the course should be fairly smooth for the first couple of days of play. On the weekend we may have more rain on Saturday and very little wind in the forecast. Personally, I see this playing out as a flying festival where all kinds of golfers can compete.

Favorite bet: Matthew Fitzpatrick +1800

For our best bets, I wrote to Chris Kirk to win at +5000. Instead of retrieving the same information here, I’ll go with Fitzpatrick on +1800. For the record, I’m betting on both this week.

Fitzpatrick missed the cut last week, but that was a complete anomaly. He is one of the best rackets of the tour and has lost over seven strokes. If anything, I’m encouraged by his green-tinged numbers (+6.5 hits per field). He’s turned out to be an excellent ball driver, has an elite short game (most of the time), and has gained the close in 10 consecutive events.

Fitzpatrick hasn’t had a win on the PGA Tour yet, but it seems like it’s only a matter of time. He racked up seven wins during his time on the European Tour.

Preferred Longshot: Brendon Todd +8000

I haven’t seen Todd on many betting cards this week, but I’m glad to be on Todd Island. I’m sure I can make room for more if any of you would like to accompany me.

Todd has always been known for his ability to do two things very well: hitting the right lane and hitting the ball. In fact, it holds the top three positions in the field in driving accuracy and strokes. He’s quietly gained in getting close in five of his last six starts and has always played his best on the short courses. He also came out third in the same standings at the Colonial Country Club.

I totally bet Todd and back up that bet with my first five and top 20.

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