The 2021–22 NFL playoff segment included seven teams that had not reached the post-season stage in the previous year. The most exciting of them is clearly the Super Bowl runner-up Bengals, who finished the previous season 4-11-1. The superstar quarterback suffered a serious knee injury in 2020, and their forays into the free agency looked, from a 30,000-foot perspective, just pebbles in a quarry.
How wrong we were.
Despite all of the NFL’s shortcomings, post-season turnover keeps the sport relatively fun. Owners who want to win have the tools at their disposal.
In that spirit, one of our favorite annual drills is showcasing the “worst-to-first” nominees around the league — or at least, in the years when some of the established elite teams make that very short list, some teams that will be new to the playoffs. Last year we got four out of six right, with the Post-season Charger losing in one game and the Giants revealing some of my misplaced optimism in early spring. The following teams probably won’t literally climb from the bottom of their league into a deep playoff like the Bengals did a year ago, but they will improve significantly, from January’s couch surfers to full-on participants. This is an effort to determine which teams will bounce back from a surprisingly bad season last year, or ultimately reap the rewards of rebuilding.
Is the Bengalis coming among us now? Let’s find out…
Tommy Gilligan/USA TODAY Sports (Jackson); Ron Chinoy/USA Today Sports (Wilson); Junfu Han / USA TODAY Network (Campbell)
Baltimore Ravens
Record in 2021: 8-9, fourth place in North Asia
Key Extras: Marcus Williams, Morgan Moses, Kyle Hamilton, Tyler Linderbaum, David Ogabo, Kyle Fuller, Michael Pierce
The crows making the playoffs seem like the safest bet we can make when talking about NFL futures. In my last 100 bold predictions column, I had the Ravens win at least 12 games and Lamar Jackson back in the MVP conversation. Last year, despite having to re-sign half of the players at Madden 2004 to play the run amid a string of injuries and despite Jackson missing five games, the Ravens were one of the five most successful teams early on. (via Sports Info Solutions) and the best team in the NFL in the red zone pass rate. why? The system works. It is still very difficult to defend. This has not changed. Now, with Jackson on a contract year, with a host of healthy defenders and perhaps the deepest tight end room in football, everything is set for the Ravens to take advantage of the changing division.
Los Angeles Chargers
2021 record: 9-8, third in Western Asia
Key Extras: JC Jackson, Khalil Mack, Kyle Van Noy, Austin Johnson, Zion Johnson, Isaiah Spiller
Despite the absence of playoffs in 2021, the Chargers were among the top offensive teams in football, ranking in the top ten in nearly every major offensive proficiency category. In Brandon Staley’s first year as a coach, his red zone scoring percentage went up by nearly 10 points. It’s safe to say they were held back defensively by a unit that was, for one reason or another, stuck in its primary defense a lot (nearly a quarter of all shots) and influenced by the increasingly common outdoor area running scheme. Sports Info Solutions had the Chargers as the second worst EPA/play team when facing area surges. It’s somewhat surprising that a team that has been defensively flawed (from an individual’s point of view) is as close as LA to making the playoffs. Now, with more heft up front, better linebackers, better angles, and a more varied lunge that should better compliment the quarterback, the Charger feels like a lock on access to the upcoming playoffs from the AFC West division that is almost certain to feature three teams in the bracket. .
Denver Broncos
Record in 2021: 7-10, fourth place in Western Asia
Go to follow
Key Extras: Russell Wilson, Randy Gregory, Cowan Williams, Billy Turner, Alex Singleton
Speaking of which, the Broncos start their season against the Seahawks and the Texas without a quarterback prior to a game against the still-raw Tre Lance in Week 3. Head coach of the year Nathaniel Hackett has a great opportunity to start the Russell Wilson era with some serious momentum. Hackett said he wouldn’t bring the Packers attack with him, and that’s a true statement. Immersed in the oldest West Coast principles, Hackett has conducted a variety of crimes, although some of the Green Bay’s core principles will come with him and update the Broncos’ now outdated crime. Last year, Denver ran the pre-moving less than most teams in the NFL, while the Packers were among the heaviest moving teams in football. It’s safe to say that Wilson wouldn’t be crammed behind some steady, predictable systems that often run under the center. Hackett’s ability to connect with quarterbacks, from Ryan Nesib to Blake Portels to Aaron Rodgers, is the stuff of legend in NFL circles. This will revitalize Wilson, a quarterback who has spent the past few seasons trying to evolve without ever having the opportunity to do so.
Indianapolis Colts
2021 record: 9-8, second place in North Asia
Main extras: Matt Ryan, Stefon Gilmore, Yannick Ngaku, Nick Foles, Rodney McLeod
To me, the Ponies look similar to chargers in that they were so talented but eventually hampered by an unreparable part of their roster that they realized they were broken very late in the process. It’s not fair to put all their troubles on Carson Wentz, but the comments from nearly every corner of the Colts Building were unprecedented. Also, was the fact that the leaders paid what they did for Wentz knowing the dowries would bus him anywhere in the country and pay for the ticket. Schematically, Indianapolis has been forced into the heavy RPO system, using a quick-hit grid point read out on 84 of Wentz’s 516 dip points last year. The total RPO runs on the Pro Football Reference advanced counter represent the most dropped RPOs that Wentz have had since they began calculating the stat after the 2018 season. As we saw with Tua Tagovailoa on the Dolphins, RPO heavy passers can still maintain their accuracy And some promising stats with not moving the ball effectively against teams and dropping seven or eight players in coverage regularly. It’s like getting really expensive sneakers and pumping up your feet quickly without realizing that you’re on a treadmill not really Going Anywhere. Matt Ryan will change the gameplay that Frank Reich calls it. What the Colts are losing with the passing of illustrious defensive coordinator Matt Ebervloss, they will more than make up for with improved midfield play. When paired with a dominant running game and an able coordinator, he’s ideally suited to his latest cover-heavy defensive development and had one of his most meticulous seasons in late 2021, despite a bearish year in Atlanta.
New Orleans Saints
2021 record: 9-8, second in NFC South
Key additions: Teran Mathieu, Chris Olaf, Jarvis Landry, Marcus May, Kentavius Street
The Saints fans were right about all this off season to trigger their draft (because I thought they were acting too much like a competitor and not a builder) and then altered my tune and their bid for the playoffs. Although I may not act like this sometimes, I come to you in every column as a fickle and completely imperfect person who reserves the right to change his mind. And it changed my opinion of the saints. This offense is very heavy with the playmakers, and the bottom half of their league would be directly horrific. Losing Sean Payton will obviously be a challenge, but I’m intrigued to see Pete Charmichael stand on his own after more than a decade of decent service as offensive coordinator. It’s hard to believe the idea that he was just some kind of a New Orleans driveway supermodel for so long during some of the most memorably successful team runs with Taysom Hill and Teddy Bridgewater. We’ll now see how much of this ingenuity is left at home. Dennis Allen was a reasonable promotion and seemed to have inspired the organization to keep its course forward. Although four quarterbacks took shots last year, the Saints were the best red zone team in the NFL per EPA/playing stats. James Winston was playing a 5-2 midfield before ripping up the AFC Champions League in Week 8. And while some of his best games still featured some classically overlooked tunes, Winston is good enough to lead this team to the No. 7 seed in talent. – NFC starvation.
So far, all the teams on this list are those that have barely missed the playoffs this year. You, dear reader, could have taken a look at last year’s standings and simply bumped into a bunch of teams that absorbed the playoffs in late 2021. Feel robbed that I’m trying selfishly to make this year’s list a perfect six-for-six?
Then let’s be weird…
Detroit Lions
2021 record: 3-13-1, 4th in NFC North
Main extras: Aidan Hutchinson, DJ Shark, Jameson Williams, Mike Hughes, Chris Board
Outstanding college football writer Richard Johnson came MMQB . Podcast A few weeks ago he predicted that the Lions would play in the postseason. I loved the prediction so much that I applied for joint custody. It’s a good idea to get an early seat in Dan Campbell’s buggy. There is still plenty of room here. Jared Goff gets a lot of flair as the dummies professional quarterback who couldn’t make it without Sean McVeigh, but Goff has been improving his decision-making skills and accuracy. His throws on goal were the best of his career last year, with more than 80% of his throws making their mark. The Lions had one of the league’s best offensive lines last year, and you should see the unit grow together again, leading to a surprisingly capable attack at a disadvantage late last year, according to SIS EPA statistics. Add a new dimension to their scrolling dash with Aidan Hutchinson’s No. 2 pick and deceptively wide and deep receiver depth chart that should pose some legitimate match issues, and it’s not hard to see why we’re a little curious. NFC is flimsy as it is. Outside of the top five teams, there’s definitely room for an all-around card, and Detroit’s most core strengths — pass protection and pass dash — are as functional as any team in the competition. I’d be willing to bet the Campbell team wouldn’t finish that poorly versus racing two years in a row either.
More NFL coverage:
• NFL needs a seat Deshaun Watson
The Aaron Donald deal: How the Rams do it
• How should the NFL feel about the Bronco sale
• 100 Bold Predictions for 2022