We have another busy Tuesday in Major League Baseball. The Buccaneers and Cardinals got us started with double heads this afternoon, and in total we have 16 matches for our betting fun.
Our analysts have finished all over, targeting four evening encounters, including a pair of picks on Guardians-Rockies. The first five bets are the topic of the day, focusing on three bets there.
Here are our top five bets from the MLB Tuesday roster.
MLB Choices & Odds
Miami Marlins vs Philadelphia Phillies
Anthony Dapondo: Zach Evelyn is in the midst of his best season as a rookie with an all-time low. The Phillies right-hander has a 2.76 xERA because it has allowed for the lowest barrel and hit rate of his career as well. He’s shifted his pitch mix quite a bit this year and has been throwing more curveballs, which hitters run at just 119 with 0.150 wOBA vs.
He completely ditched the passer, which was a display that hit him hard in the 2021 campaign. Improving his arsenal on the field increased his ability to swing and miss on out-of-zone pitches.
Trevor Rogers has struggled mostly in the 2022 campaign for Miami as he’s lost fewer bats this year and seen his A+ rating drop significantly, according to Inoue Sarris of The Athletic.
Team xERA sits all the way at 4.85 and the Philadelphia lineup sits better against the left than the right anyway, due to the excellent splits between Rhys Hoskins, Alec Bohm and Nick Castellanos against the Southpaws.
Velez should be the biggest favourite in the first five rounds, and I’ll play them up to -145 at home with a better start and a much better lineup.
Houston Astros vs Texas Rangers
Jules Posner: None of Dane Dunning’s biggest supporters is in the house than me, but even Dunning’s house magic might not be enough against the Astros on Tuesday night.
The Astros have posted 109 teams of WRC+ on the road against RHP over the past few weeks, but with a perfectly healthy attack, the Astros may be ready to take off as the summer heats up.
Dunning is as solid as it gets at home, but he’s still good at first at least twice as long.
However, the main focus here will be Jose Orchidi. He really struggled on the road, posting a 6.61 ERA and 5.10 FIP in seven routes. He also gave up four or more runs in four of those starts.
He will face the Rangers attack that is starting to heat up as well. They have a 108 wRC+ team at home over the past few weeks, but have posted 118 wRC+ teams over the past week. Marcus Simin is the catalyst for this crime, and as long as he is riven by tears, a run will follow.
Both bulls have been solid over the past few weeks, but the novices account for roughly six runs for the total based on their averages. With a total of 8.5 runs, the increase appears to be very achievable considering how both offenders have performed lately.
Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies
Sean Zerrillo: After my constant attempt to bet against Shane Pepper early in the season, I came to bet on him in the latter starts.
Bieber’s speed and spin rates remain at low levels, especially compared to his 2020 Cy Young campaign when he dominated the central division competition on a limited sample.
However, with 11 starts in 2022, he holds solid ERA scores (3.55 xERA, 3.25 xFIP, 3.37 SIERA), which matches his 2019 season (3.86 xERA, 3.23 xFIP, 3.36 SIERA). Bieber likely won’t be back at his Cy Young levels – with indicators in the low to mid-2s – however, he’s more effective than I expected after losing nearly three points from his Fastball.
Bieber has adjusted his pitch mix this season, throwing his slider more than 40% of the time (25.3% career) – the fourth-highest among 116 eligible junior players (at least 40 innings). And my rocker bats fought against that throw (21) more than any other show.
Furthermore, this is a bet against Antonio Senzatela, who ranks 111th out of the same group of qualified starters in the K-BB%. His hit total is 2.5% against attacking guardians who puff and hit less frequently than any other team.
I expect the keepers to put every ball in play against Senzatela and force a porous Rockies defense (22 in Defensive Runs Saved, 28 in Outs above average) to do games in the cavernous field at Coors Field.
On both defensive metrics, the Rockies are ranked 29th in right field defense and 30th in center field.
I projected a Cleveland F5 money line at -204 (67.1% implied) and would put juice up to -186 (65% implicit) at the 2% edge over my number.
Cleveland Guardians vs Colorado Rockies
DJ James: Both teams have struggled badly against the right-hand throw over the past month. Yes, this game will be played at Coors Stadium, but it shouldn’t matter if either team has a strong connection.
These two teams rank in the bottom four in the hardest hit percentage, while the bottom five teams rank in the exit speed. Since May 13, both teams have held 100 wRC+ off the right pitch, and are in the bottom 10 in all of baseball.
The concern is how weak Antonio Cinzatella is on the field. His blistering 6.86 xERA speed and 91.5 average exit velocity against them could give this Cleveland baseball team plenty of kicks.
But Bieber maintained 2.91 ERA for 3.55 xERA. Sure, that’s an overstated feat, but on June 2 it looked like the same as 2020. A weak Colorado team would make up the hits.
Don’t expect the Guardians to score 11 times themselves in this game. Both bulls have enough pieces to keep the total in check.
Cincinnati Reds vs Arizona Diamondbacks
Brad Cunningham: Tyler Mahley is a significant positive regression filter. He’s been really unfortunate this season to have a 5.07 ERA because his xERA is only 3.70. His biggest problem is that he walks a lot of guys with a BB/9 average of 4.11. However, his HR/9 is less than one and his K/9 is 10.14, so if he cuts his walk he will be back to where he was in 2021.
The Diamondbacks have been well below average for right-handers with only 93 wRC+ on the season, which is 21 in the MLB. Arizona will also have to deal with Mahley’s split toe, a stadium they haven’t seen much this year, with just 2.1% of the total stadiums seen.
Zach Davies has improved a lot, but his xFIP is still stable at 4.22. He has improved the ball rate, which is a huge rate considering that the two main ballparks of his and his change are designed to produce the balls. The Reds have been warming up with .326 wOBA over the past 30 days and .340 wOBA for the past two weeks. So, this is going to be a tough match for Davis.
I predicted Mahle as a better -118 in the first five rounds, so I like the value on him and the Reds at +100 and will make it up to -103.